- by David Clark

In a recent discussion with the Publisher of The Hub about high taxes and, for some, the perception that Owen Sound’s high property tax rates (primarily residential) are a barrier for people to build or purchase homes in Owen Sound, a question was posed: “Is this fact or fiction?”

Beyond the opinion that some believe it to be a fact, it is a question worth pursuing. Although without a proper research design, such as a survey, it would be extremely difficult to answer. Also, the question raises two further questions: “What other factors might affect a person’s choice of where to live?”; and, “What evidence is there to support alternate residency choice?”.

Using the 2016 and several archived censuses, we may glean insight as to why Owen Sound’s population has not increased since 1991; then the population was 21,674 and in 2021 it was 21,612, a net loss of 62 people, more or less. There have been minor peaks and valleys in the population between those two years, but overall the trend has been for people to not choose Owen Sound as “where they want to live”.

There are many factors as to why people choose to live in certain places, and all are very personal reasons. But, as The Hub’s publisher and I chatted, we easily created a list of other reasons people might choose to live over the border, in near-by communities, that are other than high taxes.

This study, using the area of Grey-Bruce (Census Division/CD) and its seventeen communities (Census Sub-divisions/CSD), explores other issues that might have an impact on choosing a community in which to live.

Property Taxes

So, let’s start with the issue of higher taxes. It is unlikely that most home-buyers consider the “tax rate” or total annual taxes, per se, but rather the combined monthly payments of mortgage, property taxes, utilities, and maintenance. Investors in rental properties consider these and the bottom-line, or profits. Nonetheless, property taxes do add up over the years. If we do, in fact, act as economically rationally, then “dollars-out-of-pocket”, are quite illustrative.

Below is a table illustrating what the municipal share of taxes would be at different tax rates, using the census mean value for houses in Grey and Bruce counties. Also included is what a twenty-year, dollars-out-of-pocket tax bill might look like. Of course things change but the calculations below are illustrative, nonetheless. 

Where people live and work, and commute times

About 59% of all workers who live and work within Grey and Bruce counties live and work in their own municipality. The range is from a low of 33.9% to a high of 75.5%. About 11% work outside of Grey and Bruce. What about Owen Sound? Well only 49% of those who work in Owen Sound also live within it; the rest (51%) commute to other municipalities for work. This means that about one-half of Owen Sound’s workforce, those who work in it, are from within and one-half from elsewhere.

So where do Owen Sounders work? Most (about 60%) drive less than fifteen minutes to work, including working within and commuting out. The rest drive about fifteen to thirty minutes to work. The majority commuting out go to Georgian Bluffs, Meaford, Kincardine, South Bruce Peninsula, and Grey Highlands.

Commuters to Owen Sound

As noted, Owen Sound receives 51% of its workers from other communities, and they come from Georgian Bluffs, Meaford, Chatsworth, South Bruce Peninsula, Arran-Elderslie, and Saugeen Shores, accounting for about 85% of the workers commuting to Owen Sound.

The following maps graphically summarise the above discussion.

Living outside of population centres (towns)

The census allows us to look at the populations of the original towns, comparing them with the populations living outside of them, in the amalgamated municipalities. This provides a rough rural-urban comparison. This analysis indicates that fully 62% of workers live outside of the pre-amalgamation towns, essentially in rural areas which tend to be less densely populated. Overall, for the entire population, 58.4% live outside of the original towns (not including Owen Sound and Hanover because they did not amalgamate with neighbours).

Digging deeper, the median ages of nine (60%) of fifteen original towns (again, excluding Owen Sound and Hanover) had median ages higher than their respective amalgamated municipality. This suggests that younger people are choosing to live rurally, outside of the old towns. Of course, Owen Sound does not have a “rural” area within its borders so living in neighboring communities meets that need.

Crime Severity Index (CSI)

The CSI is a measure of crime as reported to Statistics Canada by police departments using a standardised base year of 2006. (This means that all indices noted here are relative to the base year at 100.) The rate for Owen Sound increased from 2016 to 2019, then dropped by only 0.83%, sitting at 107.0 in 2020 (so, higher than the base year); the rate for Ontario was 55.7, and for Toronto 57.8. Except for the highest rate in Grey-Bruce (Hanover), all other communities ranged from 33.6 to 63.9. (Note: four communities were missing data.)

An article in MacLean’s magazine (November 2019) stated Owen Sound’s rate at that time was 91.3 with a 5-year average (2013 to 2018) increase of 32.6%. MacLean’s ranked Owen Sound eleventh overall, in Ontario, Timmins the highest (index of 138.3); and, the national average rate was 75.

Although people likely don’t know what the CSI index is for their community, most people have a perception that a community, or an area within that community, has a perceived high or low crime or safety rate. Certainly the news media and police reports add to that perception.

The Canadian Index of Wellbeing (2019, University of Waterloo) asked residents of Grey and Bruce about their sense of safety. When asked about “feeling unsafe walking in neighbourhood after dark” 20.2% and 15.6% of those with incomes of less than $20,000 and $20-29,999, respectively, stated they felt unsafe. The percentages reporting being unsafe declined from 14.8% to 2.8%, for various income categories. Interestingly there is an increase from the trend for those in the $100,000 to $119,000 category. People tend to live in neighbourhoods that reflect their income, so income can buy safety in “better” and perceived “safer” areas of a community. The chart of “perception of safety by age” shows an increasing feeling of being unsafe with increasing age. And the “living arrangement” graph is informative. When we combine the results of these graphs, the sense is that those who feel unsafe are precisely the ones economically less likely to be able to afford living outside of town centres and are more likely renters. (The following graphs are taken from a MS Powerpoint presentation June 2019.)

Follow more analysis of what might be affecting growth in and beyond Owen Sound in Is it really about high property taxes? Part 2