Recent warm temperatures have significantly lowered the snow pack throughout our watersheds. In most areas, the field snow has been completely exhausted with snow restricted to woodlots and fencerows. The melt has saturated the soils but has not caused any significant runoff to our streams and rivers. Riverflows are normal for this time of year.
However, there is significant rain forecast for our region. An intense low-pressure system is developing over Oklahoma this morning and will begin to move towards Southern Ontario later today. Peak rain events will occur early Saturday morning and will turn to freezing rain and snow pellets later Saturday afternoon as temperatures begin to drop. With the soils already saturated, the rain will readily run off to area waterways. Depending on the intensity and duration of the rain, flows in local waterways will rise and may cause flooding in low lying areas that seasonally flood. Small watercourses and drainage features are typically overwhelmed under these conditions and may cause localized flooding. It is recommended that area residents and municipal road crews ensure that culverts are clear of debris to prevent drainage issues. At this point, the larger streams and river systems will rise but should not exceed average spring runoff conditions.
A close watch on local forecasts and conditions is recommended. Grey Sauble’s website provides links to rain gauges and stream flow data. Due to the elevated flows, residents are advised to use caution near all watercourses. Grey Sauble Staff will continue to monitor conditions as they develop, and will provide updates as required.
Forecast heavy precipitation, unseasonably warm temperatures and associated snowmelt will result in higher than normal water levels across the Saugeen River watershed over the next few days.
An intense low-pressure system developing in the south-central United States will move towards the region later today. Heavy rain will begin overnight tonight, changing to freezing rain over the course of the day on Saturday. Stream flows are expected to peak on most of the smaller to medium-sized watersheds on Sunday, and Monday afternoon on the larger rivers.
While significant flooding is not expected, watercourses could reach or exceed bank-full conditions, with minor flooding in low-lying areas. Municipal staff should monitor problem areas and prepare to close low-lying roads.
There is still considerable uncertainty whether most of the precipitation will fall as liquid or freezing rain, however, sustained warmer air temperatures will result in more liquid precipitation, increasing the possibility of significant flooding.
Residents are reminded to stay away from all watercourses. The cold water, combined with slippery and unstable stream banks, will create hazardous conditions near all waterways.
source: media releases, GSCA and SVCA
