- by David Clark

As reported in the Sun Times, “Owen Sound’s economic development department plans to target more than just the senior set...”. The city “needs a younger image to attract new businesses” according to input from businesses at a public meeting.

The city will bill itself as more than “a retirement and second-career destination” but rather as a “lifetime community”. The director stated the city needs a “balanced community where there (are) jobs for the youth...”. As a retirement community “there’s not a very good image for new businesses” because it is seen as “just a laid-back retiree place.”

Other ideas from the action plan come with a budget of $28,000 and include signage as a priority, hiring a student, familiarization tours, bus tours, winter activities, and “numerous other marketing efforts”.

No, this is not from a current issue of the Sun Times, nor a recent council meeting; in fact it is from 27th May 1995 - almost 27 years ago. The reporter was Scott Dunn, a Sun Times staff reporter. Note: $28,000 in 1995 would be the equivalent of $47,000 today.

Worth noting is that this issue of an aging population, migrating youth, and changing small-town and rural demographics is not new and was identified as an issue many years ago, well before the Sun Times article, in at least the early 1980s.

The first of the baby-boomers hit 65 years of age in 2011 and the last will hit that milestone in 2030. Projections for Canada indicate there will be about 12 million seniors (or the preferred term “older adults”) and only about 8 million children (14 years and younger). About 60% of the rural population is aged 65 and older and about 67% for urban.

The challenge of retaining youth has been, as seen in the above mentioned article, an issue for a long time as well. Many of the youth are heading to where the jobs are in greater supply and that is precisely where the population is growing - the large urban centres. Many of the youth go away for post-secondary education and find employment, or start careers, in larger urban areas, which present more choice and opportunities (and advancements) than are available in less diverse economies of towns, small cities, and rural areas. I know of young people from this area who would not have been able to find jobs in their fields because they simply do not exist in this area.

Population projections indicate, based on various scenarios, seniors as a percentage of the population could be at a low of 26.2% and a high of 28.3% in 2028, and 29% and 41.8%, respectively, in 2068. Median age is presently 41.2 and projected to be about 42 in 2028 and 48 in 2068, continuing the ageing of the population. These numbers are generalised to Canada, so includes rural and urban communities. For comparison, Bruce’s median age is 48.5 and Grey’s is 49.3, and, if change is at a similar rate to that of Canada, the median age in 2068 in Bruce and Grey will be about 55 years.

Population growth will be in large urban centres. Growth projections for Ontario suggest by 2038 the population will be between 15 and 18 million and the “key driver” will be immigration. Most immigrants head to the large cities. The 2016 census indicates only 2.5% of recent immigrants live in rural areas. The UN projects that Canada’s population will be about 87% urban and 13% rural by 2050; presently it is about 82% and 18% respectively.

The nature of the evolving population profile of Canada generally, and Ontario specifically, suggests the increasing older adult and declining youth issues, and other issues related to population, will flummox councils and politicians for many years to come. It certainly has confounded them for a lot of years in the past.

David Clark is an independent researcher in Owen Sound