- by David Clark

In Part 1 of this analysis, we started to consider factors that might affect how someone decides where to buy or build a home - including, yes, the level of property taxes.  Now we'll look at some other available data and consider what else could affect those choices.

Population Density

Owen Sound’s population density (people per square kilometre) of 879 is in-line with other original towns (or population centres) in Grey and Bruce (e.g., which range from 571.3 to 1,468.1). Previously it was noted that many people are choosing to live outside of the old towns, especially young people, and this may well be to avoid a sense of “crowdedness”. Owen Sound’s immediate neighbours have densities in the range of 11.0 to 18.7 people per square kilometre, which, for many, is preferred.

Lower density communities allow for more property use options, such as small hobby farms/gardens, workshops, home businesses, and room for expansion.

People-per-Dwelling-Unit Density and Rent-to-Own Ratio

The people-per-dwelling-unit indicates how many people live in each separate apartment or house. Tracking it from census to census will indicate if households are getting smaller or larger, and may include unrelated people sharing accommodation.

In Owen Sound, between 1996 and 2016, the number of people per dwelling unit dropped from 2.4 to 2.1, although the number of housing units increased 8.3%. This reflects, I believe, several trends: An increase in empty-nesters; influx of some external retirees; an increase in the number of rental units; some young people are delaying or choosing to not have children (or as many); many youth moving out of the area for schooling and employment, as well as into neighbouring communities for employment and housing. Certainly there might be other reasons.

In Grey and Bruce the overall trend was the same (2.6 to 2.1). Ontario showed a different trend which was stable (2.7 to 2.6). The number of units, though, for Bruce increased 17.5%, Grey was 51.3%, and Ontario was 31.7%. What we see for Owen Sound is a situation which has had a stable population for the past three decades, has seen a slight growth in dwelling units (8.3%), but fewer people per household.

Owen Sound’s population has had a mildly bumpy ride over the past number of censuses and officially it is lower than it was in 1991 but was up very slightly in 2021 from 2016. As discussed in a previous article, Owen Sound has a very high rentals-to-owner occupied housing ratio, and since 1996 that percentage has increased whereas the trend in Grey and Bruce showed a decrease. For example, Meaford decreased from 38.8 to 31.3; Hanover from 38.6 to 38.2; and, Walkerton from 32.3 to 30.8. Overall, Grey dropped to 23.3 from 25.1, Bruce to 18.3 from 21.3, and Ontario to 30.2 from 35.6.

With Owen Sound’s reasonably static population and a declining dwelling density, although the number of units increased by 8.3%, more people, it appears, are living as singles in more rental housing units.

House Prices

Note that the following discussion is based on pre-COVID and pre-housing purchase surge accompanied by historic house price increase. Post-COVID analysis may change the shape of this discussion. But what has been presented so far is the “big picture” of multi-year trends which has gotten us to where we are now.

House values and sale prices can be used as a proxy-indicator of a community’s desirability as a place to live, relative to other places. Even though “investors” can drive up prices, I suggest those prices still reflect desirability of an investment in desirable communities; no investor wants to see a drop in value of his/her purchase. In economic terms, housing prices reflect the utility of purchase for the owner or investor.

Various past censuses included the variable of “value of dwellings”, defined by Statistics Canada as “... the dollar amount expected by the owner if the asset were to be sold” by. This is known as the willing buyer-willing seller concept. The following analysis will use the mean (average) dwelling value to assess desirability over a thirty-year period (1986 to 2016), although the median dwelling value is a preferred indicator of central tendency as it is not as affected by extreme values as is the mean, the 1996 census reported only a mean value.

The mean dwelling values had all increased during this period upwards of 425% except Owen Sound which increased just over 250% (see graph below).

The reasons for Owen Sound’s lack of mean dwelling value increase over the last thirty years (which is 269.6%) is certainly up for speculation, in need of further research. It is worth noting that between 1986 and 1996 Owen Sound had second-lowest dwelling value increase (89.0%) to Southampton’s 80.1% and was better than Ontario’s at 70.5%. Between 1996 and 2016, Grey’s mean dwelling value increased 423.9% and Bruce was at 432.5%.

Looking at the several communities from which most workers commute to Owen Sound, for the ten-year period from 2006 to 2016, Owen Sound still had the lowest mean dwelling value increase (see table below). As a long-time Owen Sound resident and property owner I would love to have seen better numbers for Owen Sound - but it is what it is.

As a measure of community desirability, or as a measure of where people want to live, Owen Sound has slipped behind, considerably. To some extent, Owen Sound has become a bedroom community to its neighbours.

Mobility and Type of dwelling Ownership

The census includes information about “mobility”, or how many people move from dwelling to dwelling, including internally (within the same CSD) and external (to and from another CSD or CD. Mobility was measured for one and five-year periods; one-year period was 2015 to 2016 and the five-year was 2011 to 2015.

Rather than attempt a (likely confusing) narrative for the various rates, the table below provides a summary. 

Specifically to Owen Sound, it had the second-highest one-year mobility rate of movers and the highest for five-year mobility. The communities, from which most workers commuted to Owen Sound, all had lower rates for both one and five year mobility for all movers (internal and external). This was especially true for Georgian Bluffs (7.2%) and Chatsworth (6.6%), indicating housing stability. Owen Sound’s rate indicates housing instability. (Note: Data as published by Statistics Canada does not allow analysis to determine if the high mobility for rented or owned dwellings.)

Looking at internal mobility only (moves within the CSD), Owen Sound was middle of the pack, close to the average and the median. But, being close to the median simply means that one-half of the municipalities have lower rates and the others have higher rates. Georgian Bluffs and Chatsworth rated lower than Owen Sound for one-year internal mobility and Georgian Bluffs for five-year mobility. The rates for Owen Sound were 5.9% for one-year and 16.6% for five-year period.

Although mobility rates cannot be assigned to either rentals or owner-occupied dwellings, as stated above, statistical correlations can be calculated to indicate how much relatedness there is between ownership and mobility.

The finding is that there is a strong, statistically significant, correlation between the nature of house occupancy and mobility. Communities with higher percentages of rentals have higher rates of mobility, for all types of movers (internal and external). For statistic junkies, r= 0.608, p= 0.01, R2= 0.369 and for all movers in the past year, and r= 0.777, p= <0.001, R2= 0.603 for all movers during the past five years. In other words, higher rates of rental-occupied dwellings appear to have less housing stability. Full disclosure: this correlation does not hold with internal movers only, both one and five years, when analysed separately. A deeper analysis is needed to explain the “all movers” and “internal movers” difference.

In Summary

Owen Sound’s population has changed very little in the past thirty-years. This means that as many people move to Owen Sound, and as many leave...or choose to live in neighbouring communities. Deaths and birth rates are a factor, too. About one-half of the jobs in Owen Sound are filled by people living in nearby communities. Sixty-two percent of workers and about 59% are choosing to live outside of built-up areas, in more “rural” environments, which are less densely populated.

Owen Sound has a high rate of rentals but across Grey and Bruce people prefer to live in various forms of single-family, owner-occupied homes. House values in Owen Sound have not risen at the same rate as the neighbouring municipalities; in fact it had the lowest rate of increase (pre-COVID-19). House values are a proxy for “desirability” of where to live. To mention an “elephant in the room”, clearly some rentals are kept in good repair but many are not; it is the rental income is bought and sold, not the property per se. Poorly-kept rentals provide a perception of a community in decline, as do vacant stores with papered-over windows.

The foregoing touches on issues, other than high property taxes, that might well-be concerns for people deciding where to live -- well, to own a home might be more accurate. Unfortunately renters, generally, cannot be as choosey. Readers can decide what they may feel to be important to them in choosing where to live.