by David Clark

The data are out. Statistics Canada just released detailed information on the population cohorts and gender identity. Because the last census was a mere five years ago we should not expect to see drastic changes in the data. Politicians might get excited because the 2021 census shows an increase in population (or get miffed because of a decline) but they should be looking at the long-term trend, to find a pattern of what is happening. Trends are not predictions but are helpful in policy and planning development. Trends go beyond the four-year municipal election cycle and allows for big-picture insight, which is necessary for good governance.

This brief article positions the data for Grey and Bruce counties and Owen Sound against that for Ontario - Owen Sound because it is the largest population centre in Grey-Bruce.

This analysis will look at change by the cohort groups of birth to 14 years of age; 15 to 64 years; and, 65 years and older. The following uses percentages to show the “share” each cohort has of the total population. The analysis includes data from each census from 1996 to 2021. Note that Owen Sound is separated out for highlighting but its changes contribute to changes at the county level.

Note: The “Y” axes in the following graphs do not conform to normal protocols of a zero to one-hundred percent (0 to 100%) scale. This is to highlight differences between some tight-fitting data lines.

Ages Birth to 14 Years

This cohort is generally at home or attending day-care, in elementary school, and in secondary school. Some may be working in part-time, low income jobs, but generally not considered to be in the workforce.

Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound (GBOS) followed the trend of Ontario with a drop in this cohort of about 25% since 1996. The trend has been, more or less, constant. Interestingly, Bruce County, since 2011, showed a slight upward trend, and Grey has seen a slight increase from 2016.

Ages 15 to 64

This cohort is generally finishing secondary school, attending post-secondary education, and working.

Although GBOS generally followed a downward trend to 2021, with an increase “bump” from 2001 to 2006, it was well-below Ontario’s cohort share, which is currently 65.6% while GBOS are, respectively, 58.6%, 58.3%, and 57.5%. Owen Sound’s overall decline (3.9%) was at a lower rate from 1996 to 2021 than was for Grey (7.0%), and Bruce (8.3%) but the current cohort share is similar, around 57% to 58%.

Ages 65 Years and Older

This cohort is generally “retired” from full-time employment, but many continue to work at least part-time.

GBOS, at 26% to 27%, is well-above Ontario’s increase (18.5%) for this cohort. Ontario’s 65 years+ cohort grew by about 110% (1996 to 2021), Owen Sound by about 40%, Grey about 56%, and Bruce about 65%. Although GBOS seems to have dodged the same ageing fate as Ontario, the fact is this area has, since at least 1996, has had a consistently higher cohort share percentage than Ontario. What has contributed to this in part, I believe, is the exodus of youth to “greener pastures” for employment. Another contributing factor is likely many retiring to this area, to cottages, rural properties, and various care homes. Of course, a deeper analysis is needed to tease-out reasons specific to the GBOS area.

The following graph uses the same data for the “65 years of age and older” data but a “trend line” is added. This trend line projects the past trend into the next three census cycles. IT IS NOT PREDICTION! If, and only if, the past trend-pattern continues the likely outcome is as shown below. This trend line assumes that all age cohorts, and sub-cohorts within each, also stays the course. Remember, this analysis is based on the percentage share of each cohort of the total population.

Ages 85 Years and Older

This cohort is most likely not employed, and may be aging at home or in care facility of some type. This cohort is included in the “65 years of age and older” analysis above.

GBOS follows a similar pattern to Ontario’s except that it is somewhat higher. Owen Sound is two percentage points higher than Grey, 2.5 points higher than Bruce, and 2.9 higher than Ontario.

Median Age

Finally, GBOS’s median age (which is the point at which one-half of the population is higher than that, and the one-half lower) follows the same trend as for Ontario. A significant difference is that GBOS is about seven years more senior.

In Summary

GBOS has followed the same trend as that of Ontario. One major difference is that GBOS , except for the “birth to age 14” cohort, has decreases and increases that are greater than that of Ontario, as a whole. Other areas, especially rural ones, may well have - likely do have - a similar pattern of population change as GBOS. That is for anther analysis.

Our politicians need to consider such long-term data, long-term trends, looking beyond the four-year election cycle. There are small bumps and dips in the census data over the years but the “big, long-term trend” is what is important.

David Clark is an Independent Researcher, Member of the Canadian Economic Association