- by David McLeish
It was with some interest that I read that City of Owen Sound Councillor Tamming was implicated in the recent spike in cases of Covid-19 in Grey and Bruce Counties. In a letter read to Owen Sound City Council on April 19, 2021 Hanover Mayor Sue Paterson, Chair of the Board of Health, Grey Bruce Health Unit, suggested that a “consequence” of recent assertions by Councillor Tamming “is an increase in case counts in the region.”
I am assuming that the assertions referred to relate to a letter to the Board of Health from Councillors John A. Tamming, Cathy Moore Coburn, Melissa Kanmacher, and Ryan Greig and a subsequent letter to The Hub from Mr. Tamming.
According to her biography, Mayor Paterson’s career prior to becoming Mayor, was as “a fundraising professional with a Certified Fund Raising Executive (CFRE) credential,” not an epidemiologist. This leads one to surmise that these assertions were informed by someone with an education in epidemiology. Not being an epidemiologist myself, I was intrigued by these allegations.
In order to assess the existence and magnitude of the relationship between assertions by Councillor Tamming and local case counts, we need a point of reference. For the purposes of this analysis, the publication dates of correspondence written by or partially by Mr. Tamming, along with other reports in the media, are used as surrogates for this asserted ability to influence the number of cases of Covid-19.
As can be seen (Fig. 1), the letter to Health Unit Board of Directors (March 29th) and Mr. Tamming’s subsequent letter to The Hub (March 30th) coincide with a subsequent substantial drop in the case count from 8 to 4 to 1. Certainly this does not support the assertion that Mr. Tamming was responsible for “an increase in case counts in the region.” This decrease was; however, followed immediately by a somewhat erratic, but steady increase in the 7-day average number of cases from 7 on March 29th to 17 on April 15th. Could this be the proverbial “smoking gun?” Mr. Tamming riles the community, leading to an abandonment of adherence to health guidelines, and a concomitant increase in case counts?
Alas, that science was this simple. It turns out that Dr. Arra’s presentation to Owen Sound City Council and the subsequent coverage of this event in The Hub was also on March 30th, the same date as Mr. Tamming’s letter. How are we to know whether it was the letters, the presentation, or The Hub’s coverage of these matters that provoked this increase?
In an effort to address these questions other factors were also considered (Fig. 1). For instance, on April 12th the Province of Ontario moved schools to remote learning following spring break and then on April 14th, immediately prior to a major spike in case counts, The Hub published another letter pertaining to the Health Unit. One could easily make an argument that the closing of schools would provoke an outrage amongst local citizenry, resulting in their total disregard for health guidelines. Perhaps in concert with the letter from Ms. Murray, which supported Mr. Tamming’s concerns, these two developments could have been the final spark. Please note that in the absence of additional data these remain theories.
Figure 1. Covid-19 case counts relative to recent correspondence.
1 March 29/21: a) Four Councillors pen Letter to Board of Health;
b) Dr. Arra makes presentation to Owen Sound City Council
2 March 30/21: Councillor Tamming Letter to The Hub: "An upset Medical Officer of Health visits city council"
3 April 12/21: Ontario Moves Schools to Remote Learning Following Spring Break
4 April 14/21: April 6th Letter from Elizabeth Murray to the Hub published: "West Grey resident respectfully requests…"
5 April 15/21: a) Grey Bruce Health Unit is declares a community outbreak in Eastern Grey County;
b) Letter to The Hub - "Dr. Ian Arra's unconscionable 2020 income" published
6 April 16/21: Medical Officer of Health Issues Class Order
7 April 19/21: a) Hub Article: “So much more to Public Health; questions are fair”
b) Letter from Board of Health read to City Council
In an effort to address these questions other factors were also considered (Fig. 1). For instance, on April 12th the Province of Ontario moved schools to remote learning following spring break and then on April 14th, immediately prior to a major spike in case counts, The Hub published another letter pertaining to the Health Unit. One could easily make an argument that the closing of schools would provoke an outrage amongst local citizenry, resulting in their total disregard for health guidelines. Perhaps in concert with the letter from Ms. Murray, which supported Mr. Tamming’s concerns, these two developments could have been the final spark. Please note that in the absence of additional data these remain theories.
Often, additional perspectives help inform both science and decision-making. The case count data for all health units in the province is also available, thus permitting comparisons with other areas . For example, as can be seen, case counts from Grey-Bruce (gold line) and Haldimand-Norfolk (burgundy) are virtually identical (Fig. 2). Indeed, these trends were relatively common across the province (e.g. Brant, Haliburton, Middlesex-London, Niagara Region, Ottawa, Peel, etc.). This suggests that either Councillor Tamming’s powers are of a much greater magnitude, affecting many areas of the province, or other forces are at work. Perhaps the local increase in case counts can be attributed to a province wide surge on cases of Covid-19.
Figure 2. Covid-19 case counts in Grey-Bruce (gold line) and Haldimand-Norfolk (burgundy line).
In conclusion, this analysis suggests that the old statistical axiom, “correlation is not causation” applies in this case. I sincerely doubt that Mr. Tamming directly influenced all or some of the residents of Grey-Bruce to begin ignoring health guidelines. Further, there is no evidence that Mr. Tamming possesses any Covid-19 related super powers, nor that high school students having a field party in Meaford even know that Mr. Tamming and others wrote letters, let alone changed their behaviour as a result.
The observations noted above should be considered in the context in which they are presented. Further research would no doubt further elucidate this matter.
In the end, spurious allegations are not helpful when difficult questions are asked. Openness, transparency, and clear answers do; however, help.
David McLeish, Owen Sound
