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hockeyFor a little fun I decided to predict the outcome of the 2020 upcoming OHL playoffs.

Looking at the stats from the last 14 seasons, I developed an algorithm to predict the “statistically-likely” outcome, based on regular play. Using an iterative process, six statistics were chosen for deeper analysis. An algorithm was developed to predict which teams will make it which playoff round. Two models that follow used different stats.

Predictive models are notorious for not being able to predict the future al that accurately, as my RRFP investments prove, but hey, it is fun to try. For 2017-2018 my prediction was 65% accurate - better than flipping a coin or having a chimp choose (probably!). Predictions were not made for the 2018-2019 playoffs.

I recognise that the models fall short in positioning the teams with incorrect number of teams for each round; such is the nature of prediction. But let’s see what happens.

Without revealing the details of my (unsophisticated) models, what is generally true is that teams that have better regular play seasons have better playoff experiences. There is a wide-range of team characteristics that are part of the mix of success, such as coaching, skills of individual players, overall team work, etc. etc. And, of course, there is luck. I do not speculate as to the various proportions each contributes to games.

Here are my predictions:

Model 1
Round 1: Barrie, Erie, Guelph, Mississauga, Oshawa, Owen Sound, Peterborough, Soo, Sudbury, Hamilton
Round 2: Flint, Kitchener, Saginaw
Round 3: London, Ottawa
Not making playoffs: Kingston, Niagara, North Bay, Sarnia, Ottawa

Model 2
Round 1: Guelph, Oshawa, Owen Sound, Peterborough, Sudbury, Windsor
Round 2: Barrie, Erie, Hamilton, Mississauga, Soo
Round 3: Kingston, Niagara, North Bay, Sarnia
Not making playoffs: Flint, Kitchener, London, Ottawa, Saginaw

David Clark
Owen Sound

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